Are the Chiken Coming to Roost?

At a point during the better parts of week ending June 19th and earlier this week I was starting to feel vindicated. Well you may ask vindicated why? Briefly let me give you a crasher course on "Marsh the oracle". It all started innocently by calling some unconnected sports events in the year 2007 and by the end of the season and better part of the playoff season all of the prior analyzed events came to pass and there it gave me the guts to proclaim myself the "Oracle". Well all the events are well documented in my now defunct yahoo blog profiles.yahoo.com/benmarshbald.

Fast forward to beginning of Obama's reign or rather on the eve of his inauguration I had some questions I wanted to post to the readers on his policies he was advocating towards fixing American economy. Mind you this was a very emotional time for me, given that we were about to witness one of the greatest historic moments in the Great American nation. One of my kinsman was ascending to the throne of the American empire. I will use kinsman carefully knowing my fellow educated friends from the lake would like me to cease and desist from stealing their thunder. Well as I had eluded earlier on I had some questions which yes I remember I worked hard to present before the self imposed deadline the inauguration date.

My friends at that time I had some very grave misgivings on the route that Obama was taking. Literary he was quickly swallowed on Bush's and big corporations "Too Big To fail" propaganda. Well it was desperate times and he rode on Bush's cocktails knowing its was the safe political bet to play. For me I saw those times as reckoning times for self examination especially the Capitalist model that actually brought about the mess in the first place. My point of view was this was a capitalistic problem and therefore needed a capitalistic  fix. By my novice analysis I was seeing the Bush/Obama administrations trying to fix this mess by prescribing a socialist band-aid while capitalistic capital was sitting on the fence waiting for the populous to mend their broken piggy bank.

One year and half years later people like me with 20/20 vision I mean hindsight can start picking apart the stimulus plan and its effect to the economy. In short its has opened this black hole that keeps on swallowing all the stimulus with no little effect in terms of righting the economy.  The republicans have the right agenda in terms letting people feel the pain but am not sure if they will let corporations  or rather corporations let them steer the pain to their direction. Thereby its fairly right to say the people will bring this economy back to life just to hand it over again to the capitalist to rape it. These are the same corporations which insist on off-shoring all manufacturing and IT jobs and then expecting the American to import these goods and services albeit at a cheaper rate but at what expense? Ok let me take you to the Obama even before he was a front runner in the Democrats Nominee, him and his team caused an uproar especially in Canada when they implied they were going to renegotiate NAFTA and all the American bi-lateral trade agreements if he was elected. This kind of statements I believe resonated with Iowa and Ohio caucuses where the bedrock of these states economy relied on manufacturing. Well it got him elected and this to me was the path he should have stuck to. Its common sense good manufacturing jobs pay good wages and from these good wages higher tax revenues can be extracted. Well it seems my observations and macro economic views were somewhat way out there now it seems like Republicans read my blog back then and they advocating pain in terms of budget cuts  a measure I was for but to the corporations.

My next "oracle" proclamation was on the state of economy in my previous blog Entry for December 31, 2009(Economics through Ben's Lens); I pointed then that bubbles were forming all around the globe especially in the Housing markets in Canada and China I also went forward and warned that a correction to a magnitude of 25-30% was in order. Recently in Metro news they came up with publication
http://www.metronews.ca/toronto/business/article/897828--surging-condo-market-can-t-last-analysts just like the good doctor prescribed.

So are the chicken coming back to roost? My guess is good as your guess, but again ain't I supposed to be the oracle? It has become hard to take a peep into the future using the current affairs as basis for trending the future since all these Governments who used to beat at China tactics of economy manipulation especially its heavy hand on the Yuan but are now using the same ol tricks to "correct" thier economiesvaluation as they see fit. This brings me to the third Oracle moment, when I said the BoC will have to raise the interest in the 4th quarter of 2010 this never happened especially where at that time Mark Carney said interest rates will have to be left untouched since some underlying aspects of the economy had not fully recovered. Central bank heads are normally cryptic so I was never concerned with his remarks but one thing I did take out of his remarks was that he was concerned at raising interest rates and inversely applying a hair cut to house prices. So he never touched the interest rates and therefore he did not correct the housing bubble evident all over Canadian big cities. Currently Mark is mulling on whether to stay the course or raise em up but the same ol concerns are still there although other economic indicators like inflation are urging him to raise them up.

So do you think a period of more pain is coming? I say yes it is coming
Is it a double dip recession? I am obliged to say it quacks like a duck walks like a duck it can't be a beaver!